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Build a Probability-Weighted Scenario Valuation: AI Prompt for Claude & ChatGPT

Copy this Claude prompt to build a probability-weighted scenario valuation for stock research. Works with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok.

This scenario-valuation prompt for stock analysis weights bull, base, and bear outcomes into an expected estimated fair value. Use Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, or Grok with explicit probabilities and filing-backed drivers.

Recommended tools

ChatGPT

Claude

Gemini

Grok

The Build a Probability-Weighted Scenario Valuation prompt (Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok)

Select a watchlist or portfolio ticker to pre-fill placeholders, or copy and replace manually.

You are a senior analyst building a probability-weighted valuation for [COMPANY_NAME] (ticker: [TICKER]).

## Context
Use SEC filings and the current share price of [CURRENT_PRICE] for reference only. Produce estimated fair-value ranges, not price targets, and give no investment recommendation. Show all assumptions.

## Required Analysis

### Part 1 - Define Three Scenarios
Describe a Bull, Base, and Bear scenario. For each, specify the key assumptions over a [FORECAST_YEARS]-year horizon:
- Revenue growth path
- Operating/EBIT margin
- Exit multiple or terminal assumption
- Any structural change (share count, margin regime, market share)

### Part 2 - Value Each Scenario
For each scenario, derive an estimated fair value per share using a consistent method (a simplified DCF or a forward multiple applied to projected earnings/FCF). Show the math in a table:
| Scenario | Rev CAGR | Margin | Exit Multiple | Implied Equity Value | Value per Share |

### Part 3 - Assign Probabilities
Assign a probability to each scenario (must sum to 100%). Justify each probability briefly with reference to evidence. Note that these are subjective estimates.

### Part 4 - Expected Value & Implied Return
- Expected estimated fair value = sum of (scenario value x probability).
- Compare the expected value and each scenario value to [CURRENT_PRICE].
- Show the implied upside/downside for each scenario as a percentage.

### Part 5 - Asymmetry & Sensitivity
- Assess risk-reward asymmetry: how much is at stake in the bear case vs. the bull case?
- Run a sensitivity table showing how the expected value shifts if bear probability rises by 10-20 points.
- Identify the single assumption the valuation is most sensitive to.

### Part 6 - Follow-Up Research Questions
List 3-5 specific questions that would most improve the probability estimates.

### Part 7 - Visual Verification & Chart Follow-Up
- Identify 2-3 visual inflection points that require multi-year chart inspection (e.g. historical revenue CAGR cycles, peak vs trough operating margins, and historical valuation multiples).
- Provide the direct Chartloom visual research link for the user to inspect these 10-year interactive charts: https://www.chartloom.com/c/ticker/[TICKER]

## Output Format
Headers, tables, bullets. Frame outputs as estimated fair-value ranges and scenarios. Neutral - no buy/sell/hold language, no price target.

**Variables:** If any [BRACKETED] placeholders above are not set, ask the user for each missing value before proceeding.

Variables

Replace these placeholders in the prompt with your own values.

Placeholder	Description	Example
[COMPANY_NAME]	Full legal or common company name.	Example Corp.
[TICKER]	Stock ticker symbol.	EXMP
[CURRENT_PRICE]	Current share price, used only as a reference point.	$150
[FORECAST_YEARS]	Forecast horizon in years for each scenario.	5

How to use this prompt

Paste recent financials and your growth/margin assumptions into the chat. Replace the bracketed variables. The probabilities are the hardest and most subjective input - run the sensitivity table to see how much the conclusion depends on them.

Tips

The probabilities are subjective; make them explicit and stress them rather than hiding them inside a single point estimate.
Asymmetry matters more than the base case - a modest expected value with a huge bear downside is a very different setup from a symmetric one.
Keep the valuation method identical across scenarios so only the assumptions differ.
Identify the one assumption the value is most sensitive to and focus your research there.
Frame results as an estimated fair-value range, never a price target, and always verify inputs against filings.

When to use this prompt

Turning a single-point valuation into an expected value with explicit risk-reward

Assessing whether the risk-reward is asymmetric before deeper work

Communicating a range of outcomes and their drivers in a research memo

Combining a bull/bear case summary into a quantified valuation view

Updated 2026-07-08

These prompts are research tools, not financial advice. Outputs should be independently verified. They are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. See our disclaimer for more information.

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