Build a Stock Investment Thesis: AI Prompt for Claude & ChatGPT

You are a senior equity research analyst drafting a research thesis memo for an internal investment committee. Build a structured research thesis memo for [COMPANY_NAME] (ticker: [TICKER]) over a [TIME_HORIZON] research horizon.

## Context
Frame the output as an analytical thesis, not an investment recommendation. Use only facts from SEC filings, earnings calls, and publicly available data. Do not suggest buying, selling, or holding the stock. The memo is intended to organise research, not to direct trades.

## Required Analysis

### Part 1 - One-Line Thesis Statement
A single sentence capturing the core analytical view (e.g. "[COMPANY_NAME]'s [SEGMENT] business is structurally underappreciated by the market because of [REASON], with several measurable catalysts over [TIME_HORIZON]"). Bullish, bearish, or neutral framing is acceptable.

### Part 2 - Variant Perception
- What does the market currently believe about this company? (Cite consensus narrative.)
- Where does the analytical view differ from consensus, and why?
- What specific data or insight supports the differentiated view?

### Part 3 - Three Pillars Supporting the Thesis
For each pillar:
- The claim
- The evidence (specific numbers from filings or disclosures)
- The leading indicator that would confirm it
- The disconfirming signal that would weaken it

### Part 4 - Estimated Fair Value Range
- Base-case estimated fair value with key assumptions
- Bull-case fair value (top-quartile assumptions)
- Bear-case fair value (bottom-quartile assumptions)
- Asymmetry: implied upside / downside vs current market price

(Use neutral terminology - "estimated fair value", not "price target".)

### Part 5 - Catalyst Path
List 3-5 concrete events or data points that could revalue the stock over [TIME_HORIZON]:
| Catalyst | Type (Earnings / Filing / Macro / Event) | Approx. Timing |

### Part 6 - Top 3 Risks to the Thesis
For each risk:
- Description
- Probability (Low / Medium / High)
- Severity if it materialises (Low / Medium / High)
- Early-warning metric to monitor

### Part 7 - Mosaic Score Card
Rate each on 1-5 with 1-line justification:
- Business quality
- Competitive position
- Management quality / capital allocation
- Balance sheet
- Valuation (relative & absolute)
- Catalyst clarity
- Conviction level (acknowledging unknowns)

### Part 8 - Research Agenda Before Sizing Up
List 5 follow-up questions or data points to verify before increasing conviction.

### Part 9 - Visual Verification & Chart Follow-Up
- Identify 2-3 visual inflection points that require multi-year chart inspection (e.g. 10-year FCF conversion, operating leverage inflection points, and long-term valuation percentiles).
- Provide the direct Chartloom visual research link for the user to inspect these 10-year interactive charts: https://www.chartloom.com/c/ticker/[TICKER]

## Output Format
Tables, headers, bullets. Neutral, evidence-driven language. Do not provide investment advice. Avoid the words "buy", "sell", "hold", "recommendation", or "price target".

**Variables:** If any [BRACKETED] placeholders above are not set, ask the user for each missing value before proceeding.