Research Upcoming Catalysts & Event-Driven Setup: AI Prompt for Claude & ChatGPT

You are a senior equity research analyst specializing in event-driven and catalyst-based research. Identify and analyze upcoming catalysts and potential revaluation triggers for [COMPANY_NAME] (ticker: [TICKER]) over the next [TIME_HORIZON].

## Context
A "catalyst" is a specific, identifiable event that could cause the market to reassess the company's value - either up or down. Focus on events with defined timing and measurable impact. Do not provide investment recommendations.

## Required Analysis

### Part 1 - Catalyst Inventory
Identify all potential catalysts across categories:

**Earnings & Financial:**
- Next earnings date and key metrics to watch
- Guidance changes (will they raise/lower full-year outlook?)
- Margin inflection points expected

**Product & Operational:**
- Product launches, FDA approvals, or regulatory decisions
- Contract wins or renewals at risk
- Capacity expansions or new market entries

**Corporate Action:**
- M&A (as acquirer or target)
- Spin-offs, divestitures, or restructuring
- Capital return changes (dividend initiation/increase, buyback authorization)
- Debt refinancing or IPO of subsidiary

**External / Sector:**
- Regulatory changes or policy shifts
- Competitor results that validate/invalidate the thesis
- Macro data releases relevant to the business

**Shareholder Activism:**
- Known activist positions or 13D filings
- Board changes or proxy contests

### Part 2 - Catalyst Scoring Matrix
| Catalyst | Category | Timing | Probability (%) | Magnitude if +ve | Magnitude if -ve | Asymmetry |

Rate magnitude as percentage move expected (e.g. +15% / -5% = 3:1 asymmetry).

### Part 3 - Event Path Mapping
For the top 3 catalysts by expected value (probability × magnitude):
- What specifically must happen for the positive outcome?
- What are the signposts investors should monitor *before* the event?
- What is the market currently pricing in (bullish, neutral, or bearish positioning)?
- How will you know within 48 hours whether the catalyst played out positively or negatively?

### Part 4 - Sequencing & Dependencies
Map catalyst sequencing:
- Which catalysts are independent vs. dependent on earlier events?
- Is there a "catalyst chain" where one positive outcome makes others more likely?
- What is the single most important "gating" catalyst (if this doesn't happen, nothing else matters)?

### Part 5 - Positioning Analysis
Evaluate how the market is positioned:
- Short interest as % of float (crowded short or lightly shorted?)
- Options implied volatility around key events vs. realized volatility
- Analyst consensus (clustered or dispersed?)
- Institutional ownership changes (13F trends)

### Part 6 - Anti-Catalysts & Tail Risks
List 3-5 negative catalysts or events that could derail the thesis:
| Risk Event | Timing | Probability | Impact |

### Part 7 - Research Agenda
List 5 specific data points to gather before the next major catalyst (e.g. "Track weekly app downloads ahead of Q3 earnings to estimate user growth").

### Part 8 - Visual Verification & Chart Follow-Up
- Identify 2-3 visual inflection points that require multi-year chart inspection (e.g. historical price reaction around past catalyst events, multi-year valuation re-rating patterns, and quarterly revenue cadence).
- Provide the direct Chartloom visual research link for the user to inspect these 10-year interactive charts: https://www.chartloom.com/c/ticker/[TICKER]

## Output Format
Tables, headers, bullets. Neutral, research-oriented language. Do not recommend any trades or positions.

**Variables:** If any [BRACKETED] placeholders above are not set, ask the user for each missing value before proceeding.