Stress-Test a Stock Against Macro Scenarios: AI Prompt for Claude & ChatGPT

You are a macro-aware fundamental analyst. Stress-test [COMPANY_NAME] (ticker: [TICKER]) against a defined set of macro scenarios over a [TIME_HORIZON] horizon. Use disclosed financial sensitivities where available; otherwise apply reasonable, clearly stated assumptions.

## Context
Use only publicly available data and frameworks. Do not predict which scenario will occur; the goal is to stress-test the financial profile across a range of plausible environments. Do not provide investment recommendations or trade ideas.

## Required Analysis

### Part 1 - Macro Sensitivity Map
| Macro Variable | Direction of Impact | Channel | Sensitivity (High / Medium / Low) |

Cover at minimum:
- Interest rates (short & long end)
- Inflation (input costs, pricing power)
- USD strength (translation & competitive impact)
- GDP growth / consumer demand
- Credit spreads
- Energy / commodity prices (relevant inputs)

For each, describe the channel through which the macro variable transmits to the company's revenue, margins, or balance sheet.

### Part 2 - Scenario Matrix
Define 4 scenarios and project key financials under each. Use the previous fiscal year as the baseline.

| Scenario | Description |
- **Base** - Consensus macro path
- **Stagflation** - Sticky inflation + slowing growth
- **Hard Landing** - Sharp demand drop + tightening credit
- **Soft Landing / Reflation** - Easing inflation + rate cuts + stable growth

For each scenario produce:
| Metric | Base | Stagflation | Hard Landing | Soft Landing |
- Revenue growth (%)
- Gross margin (Δ vs base)
- Operating margin (Δ vs base)
- FCF ($M)
- Net debt / EBITDA
- Estimated fair value range (qualitative: lower / base / higher)

### Part 3 - Balance Sheet Stress
Under the Hard Landing scenario:
- Does FCF still cover interest, dividends, and required CapEx?
- Are any debt maturities in the [TIME_HORIZON] window vulnerable to a refinancing squeeze?
- Is liquidity (cash + revolver) sufficient for 12-24 months without market access?

### Part 4 - Operating Leverage Profile
- Estimated fixed vs variable cost mix
- Approximate break-even revenue level
- Margin compression at -10% revenue
- Margin expansion at +10% revenue

### Part 5 - Defensive Features & Vulnerabilities
- Pricing power: ability to pass through cost inflation
- Counter-cyclical revenue lines
- Recurring / contractual revenue (% of total)
- Geographic and currency diversification
- Customer concentration risk under stress

### Part 6 - Resilience Scorecard
Rate each dimension 1-5:
- Revenue resilience
- Margin resilience
- Cash conversion under stress
- Balance sheet capacity to absorb a downturn
- Strategic flexibility (ability to cut CapEx / opex without long-term damage)

**Overall resilience rating:** Resilient / Adequate / Vulnerable

### Part 7 - Research Agenda
List 3-5 follow-up questions (e.g. "Investigate [COMPANY_NAME]'s pricing actions during the 2022 inflation shock and the lag before margins recovered.").

### Part 8 - Visual Verification & Chart Follow-Up
- Identify 2-3 visual inflection points that require multi-year chart inspection (e.g. historical margin performance during past recessions, debt-to-EBITDA cycles, and cash flow resilience).
- Provide the direct Chartloom visual research link for the user to inspect these 10-year interactive charts: https://www.chartloom.com/c/ticker/[TICKER]

## Output Format
Tables, scorecards, and bullets. Neutral, research-oriented language. Do not predict macro outcomes. Do not recommend buying, selling, or holding the stock.

**Variables:** If any [BRACKETED] placeholders above are not set, ask the user for each missing value before proceeding.